The “defining question” facing the business aviation industry is “no longer who can provide an aircraft but who can secure and coordinate the capacity around it, from delivery slots, crews, hangars, and maintenance to a seamless passenger experience.”
That is according to McKinsey & Company, which earlier this week released its inaugural analysis of the state of the bizav industry. The consultancy predicted that industry leaders heading into 2027 will be those who respond the quickest to limited aircraft supply, growing infrastructure constraints, and the difficulty of scaling.
Per McKinsey, demand for private aircraft—driven by increasing wealth, particularly in the U.S. market—is outpacing supply. It said the business aviation industry is “coping” with “challenges, including the supply of new aircraft, shifts in flight patterns to smaller airports, and the need to maintain momentum in consolidation.”
The analysis draws from industry data and interviews with sector leaders such as NetJets and West Star Aviation, covering a 2019-25 time frame. According to the firm, departures have increased by 4.9 percent annually since 2019, reaching a record 3.9 million in 2025. But stakeholders are struggling to accommodate that growth.
Here’s what else McKinsey found and what the firm believes stakeholders should consider.
Why Business Aviation Demand Is Growing
According to McKinsey, the primary factor fueling demand is the 5.6 percent annual rise in the world’s ultra high net worth individual (UHNWI) population during the studied time frame.
“The transfer of wealth we have been hearing about for years suggests that around $80 trillion to $100 trillion dollars will be transferred over the next 20 years,” said Patrick Gallagher, president of NetJets Aviation.
Growth is particularly strong in North America, which McKinsey forecasts will represent a 43 percent share of the world’s UHNWIs by 2031.
Beyond increasing wealth, a decline in nonstop commercial routes for flights under 1,000 kilometers has reduced direct service, particularly for second-tier destinations, driving customers to bizav.
The industry has also absorbed demand due to geopolitical disruptions, such as the war in the Middle East. Crowded airports, inconsistent service, and lower on-time performance for commercial airlines has lessened their appeal despite rising investment in premium services, McKinsey found.
Where That Demand Is Going
The consultancy described North America’s position in the bizav world as dominant.
While utilization is up globally, North America is “by far” the industry’s largest regional market, it said. The region accounted for some 70 percent of global business flight hours in 2025 compared to 16 percent for runner-up Europe. McKinsey said it would take decades for other regions to catch up at current growth rates.
“Today, North America registers about four times the flight hours of Europe and more than ten times those of every other region,” it said.
Demand has also shifted away from corporate centers toward leisure and second-home destinations, which saw 5.4 percent growth in departures from 2019-25 versus 2.1 percent for traditional business locations. NetJets’ Gallagher highlighted Naples, Florida; Scottsdale, Arizona; Jackson Hole, Wyoming; and Bozeman, Montana, as particularly busy locations.
The way customers are flying is also shifting. Fractional ownership rose from a 14 percent share of total business jet flight hours in 2019 to a 20 percent share in 2025. During the same period, fleet size grew from 990 to 1,510. The fractional segment grew faster than managed ownership and corporate and private services models—which remain the largest segments—and charter operators, whose share of flight hours remained flat despite the emergency of more large providers.
Demand has also gone disproportionately toward very light and long-range jets, led by the Bombardier Global 7500/8000 and Gulfstream G650/700/800, compared to midsize and large-cabin models.
Rising Demand Leads to Challenges
Business aviation stakeholders are contending with a range of issues as they attempt to keep pace with demand.
For one, though fleet sizes have grown, they are aging. Aircraft, particularly midsize and large-cabin models, are remaining in service for longer stretches. McKinsey found that on average, they flew 19 percent more hours in 2025 than in 2019, which is driving higher maintenance costs.
The consultancy estimated 2025 and ’26 business jet deliveries at about 842 units, far off the peak of 1,290 in 2008, as lead times rose. It predicted a “second wave of capacity constraints” due to limited new-build rates and expensive replacements. That could prompt a shift toward fractional shares, charters, and jet card products.
These aging fleets are also seeing more unused range and capacity as travelers seek shorter, faster trips. McKinsey estimated that 65 percent of ultra-long-range flights to and from the U.S. in 2025 were less than 1,000 nm, and 27 percent were under 250 nm.
Solairus Aviation CEO Don Dreher said the firm’s jets on average fly two passengers for two hours, despite averaging capacity for 14 passengers and certified range of 14 hours. McKinsey believes the lack of utilization is a management rather than asset issue.
Another challenge is infrastructure. Leisure destinations in particular are seeing more pressure on hangar and parking space, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), and other private services. McKinsey found that landing and special event fees have not yet harmed demand, but limited ground capacity and construction and noise rules have. Gallagher said infrastructure is “by far the biggest challenge we contend with.”
The combination of limited aircraft and infrastructure is driving consolidation among operators and FBO networks, McKinsey said. West Star Aviation CEO Stephen Maiden said he expects that trend to continue.
“As the industry grows, tier-one providers and OEMs continue to invest in improved technology solutions and talent,” Maiden said. “There is pressure for other stakeholders to keep up.”
What Stakeholders Should Consider
McKinsey said “three major shifts” are affecting “every part of business aviation.” Longer planning horizons are requiring more discipline. Customer needs are shifting away from range toward speed, cabin quality, and personalization. Customers also increasingly do their research using AI rather than through brokers.
“In short, driving economies of scale and the further maturing of the industry through consolidation is the competitiveness gap that OEMs, MRO suppliers, operators, and infrastructure providers should close,” analysts concluded.
OEMs, the firm said, should increase production rates to keep up with demand, which is a seemingly obvious conclusion. But they should focus more on speed and cabin or interior retrofits than range to match shifting customer sentiment.
McKinsey described final assembly as the “lower margin half” of OEM products and encouraged them to direct more focus toward major systems and aftermarket services, such as retrofitting, to solidify customer relationships.
For operators, customers are beginning to prefer access to ownership, as evidenced by the growth among fractional providers. Rather than rapidly expanding fleets, they should better position aircraft and crews to minimize empty legs and use AI to customize offerings and spot demand, McKinsey suggested.
MRO providers are benefitting from rising demand due to aging fleets. But to capitalize, the consultancy believes addressing supply chain bottlenecks and lowering turn times will be critical. It described the latter as a “competitive differentiator rather than an operational metric.”
Organizations may also consider the importance of the customer relationship, as well as data on their installed base, in order to “move from being seen as a cost center to being the gatekeeper of fleet availability.”
Finally, FBOs and infrastructure providers should secure more long-term positions—including internationally—and optimize aircraft movement to dodge capacity constraints, McKinsey said.
“Industry experts tell us that passengers are increasingly judging the arrival, ground handling, and lounge experience against luxury hospitality rather than against other FBOs, making quality facilities and data-driven frictionless experiences all the more valuable,” it concluded.
