Aircraft lessor Avolon expects a shortage of widebody aircraft to persist into the 2030s, citing sustained delivery constraints and rising international demand in its UPNEXT 2026 Outlook. The company said widebody production remains well below pre-pandemic levels, while narrowbody availability, though less constrained, is also expected to remain tight through the end of the decade.
“We’re forecasting the narrowbody market to be undersupplied through the end of the decade, into the 2030s and perhaps a longer period of time for the widebody market,” Avolon Chief Risk Officer Jim Morrison told Reuters.
According to Avolon, the industry is expected to produce about 4,000 fewer aircraft this decade than originally planned due to pandemic-related disruptions and ongoing manufacturing challenges.
While narrowbody deliveries have approached prior peaks, widebody output has lagged, leaving capacity constrained as international traffic continues to expand. The outlook noted that growth in long-haul demand is increasingly centered outside the U.S., with India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia expected to drive future fleet requirements.
The constrained supply environment has coincided with a period of improving airline financial performance, supported in part by lower fuel prices and high load factors, the report said. Avolon said airlines are entering 2026 with stronger balance sheets after multiple consecutive profitable years.
“If there was a period of lower economic growth, for whatever reason, we actually believe the industry is well positioned to withstand that,” Avolon CEO Andy Cronin told Reuters.
